Pest Predictions for 2026: Ticks, Mosquitoes, and Invasives
To predict future pest populations, we must look at the past. Pest population predictions are primarily based on historical populations and weather patterns. Many regions throughout the United States have experienced a mild winter with frequent temperature swings. These weather conditions allow for higher winter survival rates and extend the breeding season for many insects and pests. This can result in higher pest populations the following spring (Pests.org, 2025).
Ticks and mosquitoes are predicted to be a particular problem this year, according to entomologists (Terminix, 2026). A forecast backed by CDC and NOAA data suggests elevated tick activity to many regions of the United States, particularly in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. This is consistent with an ongoing five-year trend of extended tick season and a northward expansion of tick habitat (MyWild, 2026). Additionally, current weather patterns have led to longer periods of humidity, which are considered to lengthen the mosquito breeding season (Saline Health System, 2025). Preparing in advance can help mitigate the adverse health effects of these pests for school staff and students.
Entomologists also suggest that there may be an increase in certain invasive species this year. Asian needle ants, joro spiders, New World screwworm flies, spotted lanternflies and hybrid termites are species to keep an eye out for (Terminix, 2026). A recent study from the University of Florida suggests the ongoing spread of two different invasive termite species this year (Chouvenc, 2026). Invasive species can show up unexpectedly, so knowing which ones to look out for—with termites and Asian needle ants being problematic for schools in particular—can help school staff prepare.
It is important to keep in mind that pest predictions are largely based on climate and previous populations and therefore can vary greatly by region. For region-specific pest predictions, check out the Bug Barometer, developed by entomologists at the National Pest Management Association (Pest World, 2025). This is a useful, easy to understand tool that is updated biannually.
Pest predictions can serve as a useful tool for updating your school’s IPM plan for the year, and having a trained eye for pest activity is key for minimizing harm. To learn more about how school staff and students can help monitor for pests, check out this article: School Staff and Students Play an Important Role in IPM Monitoring – The Pest Defense for Healthy Schools.
Sources
2026’s Pest Trends and Activity Forecast. Terminix. (2026, January 8). https://www.terminix.com/blog/whats-buzzing/pest-trends-predictions/
Bug Barometer. Pest World. (2025). https://www.pestworld.org/bug-barometer/
Chouvenc, T. (2026, January 24). Ongoing monitoring of the spread of 2 invasive subterranean termite species (Coptotermes Wasmann) in Florida (1990 to 2025), Journal of Economic Entomology, Oxford Academic. https://academic.oup.com/jee/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/jee/toaf370/8439771
How Cold Weather Changes Pest Behavior. Pests.org. (2025, December 30). https://www.pests.org/can-pests-survive-winter-how-cold-weather-changes-pest-behavior/
Real-Time Tick Forecast & Lyme Disease Risk. MyWild. (2026, February). https://mywild.report/tick-forecast-2026
Why Mosquito-Borne Illnesses are on the Rise – and How to Protect Yourself. Saline Health System. (2025, August 1). https://www.salinememorial.org/news/2025/08/01/why-mosquito-borne-illnesses-are-on-the-rise-and-how-to-protect yourself